CompleteMVP Odds

Right now the NFL MVP market is concentrated around a surprisingly small group of true favorites. The dataset behind nflmvpodds.com tracks one hundred nineteen players who have appeared on the board this season. By week eleven only forty four still have an active price, while seventy five have drifted off the board or settled at zero.

Within that group of forty four active names, only four players sit shorter than plus one thousand. Matthew Stafford is now the clear front runner at roughly plus one hundred thirty five. Drake Maye follows at around plus one hundred seventy five. Josh Allen has slid back to about plus four hundred fifty. Jonathan Taylor is the only non quarterback in that inner circle at roughly plus eight hundred.

Below the top four there is a second tier of candidates priced between plus one thousand and plus five thousand. That tier includes Patrick Mahomes around plus two thousand, Jalen Hurts around plus four thousand, and a couple of quarterbacks in the Jared Goff and Sam Darnold range at roughly plus five thousand. The next group stretches from plus six thousand to plus ten thousand with names like Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix, Baker Mayfield, Caleb Williams, and Jaxon Smith Njigba. Everyone else on the active list is priced at plus ten thousand or longer.

The overall shape of the market is clear. A tiny inner ring of four players. A thin ring of mid range contenders. Then a wide rim of long shots who would need a spectacular finish to force their way into the real conversation.

Because the sheet includes weekly odds from week one through week eleven, you can see exactly how far the market has moved from the opening prices. At the start of the season, week one odds were much more tightly packed. Josh Allen opened as the favorite at plus three hundred fifty. Lamar Jackson sat close behind at plus four hundred seventy five. Jayden Daniels and Patrick Mahomes were both around plus eight hundred fifty. Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, C J Stroud, and Aaron Rodgers all clustered between plus one thousand and plus four thousand.

That opening board was almost entirely made of quarterbacks and almost entirely driven by preseason expectations about team success. Eleven weeks later the leaderboard looks very different. Stafford, Maye, and Taylor have forced their way to the front. Several early names have cooled off or disappeared entirely.

On average, the forty four players still on the board have seen their odds drift longer compared with their opening numbers. The average change from week one to week eleven for active players is a little under minus ten thousand, which means the typical name is now priced at a longer number than at the start. There are exceptions where the market has tightened considerably, but they stand out precisely because most of the field has moved in the opposite direction.

The sheet makes the biggest climbers very obvious when you compare week one odds to the current week. No player has moved more in pure price terms than Jaxon Smith Njigba. He opened as a deep long shot at plus seventy five thousand and is now around plus ten thousand. That is still a long number, but it represents a move of sixty five thousand points and signals that the market now treats him as a real, if unlikely, candidate instead of pure noise.

A similar story exists for Puka Nacua. His odds tightened from plus fifty thousand to around plus twenty thousand, with a best point at plus ten thousand during the middle of the season. Both wide receivers are still long shots, but they no longer sit in the far fringe of the sheet.

Among the true contenders the three standout risers are Jonathan Taylor, Drake Maye, and Matthew Stafford. Jonathan Taylor began the season at plus thirty thousand and has compressed his price to around plus eight hundred, with a best week near plus six hundred fifty. That move reflects how rare it is for a running back to be priced alongside elite quarterbacks.

Drake Maye has made the purest climb into the inner circle from a quarterback standpoint. He opened around plus ten thousand and now trades near plus one hundred seventy five with his best price appearing right now in week eleven. The data shows intermediate steps along the way at plus three thousand and plus four hundred, a slow burn that turned into a full surge as wins added up.

Stafford has pushed his way from the mid tier into the top spot. He began around plus five thousand five hundred and has marched through plus twelve hundred, plus five hundred, and now plus one hundred thirty five. Like Maye, his best number also comes in week eleven, which means his case is still building rather than fading.

The dataset also shows who the market has cooled on the most. Jayden Daniels and Brock Purdy are the two most obvious casualties. Both opened in the realistic contender band. Jayden Daniels at roughly plus eight hundred fifty and Purdy at plus two thousand. By week eleven both sit at zero, which the sheet uses as a marker for removal from the MVP market.

Patrick Mahomes tells a different kind of story. His line has taken a long round trip. He started near plus eight hundred fifty, drifted out to plus two thousand five hundred in week two, then stormed all the way into around plus one hundred twenty five by week seven and week eight. That was the point where he effectively shared favorite status with Allen. Since then his price has lengthened back to around plus two thousand. He remains in the second tier but no longer sits at the very front of the pack.

Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert show the quieter version of the same pattern. Both tightened from their opening numbers into the plus two hundreds or plus five hundreds early in the year, then slowly slid back to the plus seven thousand five hundred range by week eleven. They remain on the board and technically in the larger conversation, but they are now much closer to the long shot group than to the inner circle.

There is also a long list of players who never really made a sustained run. Names like Kyler Murray, Michael Penix Junior, Cameron Ward, J J McCarthy, Russell Wilson, Ceedee Lamb, Nick Chubb, and many others started the year at big numbers and either stayed at those levels or dropped to zero before ever gaining serious traction. The fact that seventy five of one hundred nineteen tracked names now sit at zero or off the board underlines how narrow the realistic MVP race has become.

One of the more interesting insights from the sheet comes from looking at when each player hit their shortest price. For every row you can scan across weeks one through eleven and ask at which point the odds were lowest. For the forty four players who still have a price, eighteen hit their best number right at the start in week one. Another group peaked in single specific weeks such as week three, week five, week six, or week seven. Only two players Stafford and Maye are at their lowest number right now in week eleven.

That distribution shows that for most candidates the market formed a strong opinion early and then adjusted slightly as the season unfolded. Many players saw their odds tighten once or twice and then lengthen again as the race clarified. Only a small handful continued to gain momentum deep into the schedule.

Volatility also varies a lot across the board. Some quarterbacks have barely budged, sitting in a stable mid range band for most of the year. Others, like Mahomes or Daniel Jones, have swung back and forth by several thousand points as performances and narratives shifted. Jonathan Taylor and the young wide receivers occupy the opposite end of the spectrum as extreme movers who turned from near afterthoughts into names the market has to take seriously.

For anyone thinking about how to time an MVP futures position, the pattern is simple in this dataset. The very best numbers on most successful candidates came early, either in week one or in the first few updates. True breakouts that became better bets later in the year are rare and stand out clearly when they happen.

The structure of the data makes it easy to turn a static snapshot into a live story of the race. Each row corresponds to a player and each column labeled with a week holds the American odds for that week. A positive number such as four hundred fifty represents plus four hundred fifty. Zero means the player has been removed from the board. A blank cell means the player never had a listed price that particular week.

When you look down the current week column you are seeing the most recent prices for week eleven. When you look across a single row from left to right you are watching that player's case rise or fall as the season unfolds. A smooth line of falling numbers from week one to week eleven signals a climber who keeps strengthening. A drop followed by a rise shows a candidate who had a hot streak and then cooled off. Lines that spike once and then flatten tell the story of one big week that the market ultimately dismissed.

On nflmvpodds.com the surface features of the page, such as the list of favorites and the breakdown of short prices versus long shots, are all generated from that same sheet. The written analysis you add to the page can then point to specific moves in the numbers and help readers understand what has driven the race to this point.