2025-26 Season

Sam DarnoldMVP Odds

Odds moved to +5000 today (Week 11). Contender tier. Updated Nov 21, 2025.

Minnesota VikingsQB#14
Current Rank
#8th
Best Odds
+5000
Win Probability
2.0%

7-Day Movement

Change:-7.1pp
Rank Change:0
Trend:Sliding

Market Analysis

Confidence:Medium
Volatility:3.0%

Current Market Summary

Sam Darnold is currently ranked #8 in MVP odds with +5000 odds (2.0% implied probability). The QB has lost 7.1 percentage points over the past week, showing a sliding trend. Market confidence is medium with 3.0% volatility over the last four weeks.

Board Position & Gaps

Leaderboard friction — gaps to close & leads to protect

Chasing

Patrick Mahomes
+2000 (4.76%)
Needs +2.80pp
to pass
Jonathan Taylor
+800 (11.11%)
Needs +9.15pp
to pass
Josh Allen
+450 (18.18%)
Needs +16.22pp
to pass
Current Position
#8
1.96% implied probability

Volatility & Velocity

Market dynamics over last 7 days

Volatility
Whipsaw
7-day band: 0.79% → 9.09%
Velocity
-0.52pp/day
Falling trend (5-day slope)
7-Day Probability Trend

Payout Calculator

Returns at +5000 odds

Bet
$10
Profit
$500.00
Total
$510.00
Bet
$25
Profit
$1,250.00
Total
$1,275.00
Bet
$50
Profit
$2,500.00
Total
$2,550.00
Bet
$100
Profit
$5,000.00
Total
$5,100.00
Bet
$250
Profit
$12,500.00
Total
$12,750.00
Bet
$500
Profit
$25,000.00
Total
$25,500.00
Bet
$1,000
Profit
$50,000.00
Total
$51,000.00

Total return = Profit + Original stake. American odds: +5000 = 51.00× decimal multiplier.

Probability Trend Analysis

Sam Darnold implied probability over 11 weeks

11-Week Average
2.7%

Peak Performance

9.1%
Week Week 10

vs 11-Week Average

-0.7pp
Below average

11-Week Volatility

2.5%
Standard deviation

Frequently Asked Questions

Everything you need to know about Sam Darnold MVP odds

Sam Darnold currently has +5000 MVP odds, which translates to a 2.0% implied probability of winning the award. These odds place Sam at rank #8 among all MVP candidates for the 2025-26 season.

Data Methodology

Our MVP odds aggregate data from major sportsbooks and calculate implied probabilities, market confidence, and trend analysis. All metrics are updated weekly with the latest market movements.

Learn More