2025-26 Season

Patrick MahomesMVP Odds

Odds moved to +2000 today (Week 11). Favorite tier. Updated Nov 21, 2025.

Kansas City ChiefsQB#15
Current Rank
#5th
Best Odds
+2000
Win Probability
4.8%

7-Day Movement

Change:-9.5pp
Rank Change:0
Trend:Sliding

Market Analysis

Confidence:Medium
Volatility:14.6%

Current Market Summary

Patrick Mahomes is currently ranked #5 in MVP odds with +2000 odds (4.8% implied probability). The QB has lost 9.5 percentage points over the past week, showing a sliding trend. Market confidence is medium with 14.6% volatility over the last four weeks.

Board Position & Gaps

Leaderboard friction — gaps to close & leads to protect

Chasing

Jonathan Taylor
+800 (11.11%)
Needs +6.35pp
to pass
Josh Allen
+450 (18.18%)
Needs +13.42pp
to pass
Drake Maye
+175 (36.36%)
Needs +31.60pp
to pass
Current Position
#5
4.76% implied probability

Volatility & Velocity

Market dynamics over last 7 days

Volatility
Whipsaw
7-day band: 3.85% → 44.44%
Velocity
-1.36pp/day
Falling trend (5-day slope)
7-Day Probability Trend

Payout Calculator

Returns at +2000 odds

Bet
$10
Profit
$200.00
Total
$210.00
Bet
$25
Profit
$500.00
Total
$525.00
Bet
$50
Profit
$1,000.00
Total
$1,050.00
Bet
$100
Profit
$2,000.00
Total
$2,100.00
Bet
$250
Profit
$5,000.00
Total
$5,250.00
Bet
$500
Profit
$10,000.00
Total
$10,500.00
Bet
$1,000
Profit
$20,000.00
Total
$21,000.00

Total return = Profit + Original stake. American odds: +2000 = 21.00× decimal multiplier.

Probability Trend Analysis

Patrick Mahomes implied probability over 11 weeks

11-Week Average
19.7%

Peak Performance

44.4%
Week Week 7

vs 11-Week Average

-14.9pp
Below average

11-Week Volatility

14.6%
Standard deviation

Frequently Asked Questions

Everything you need to know about Patrick Mahomes MVP odds

Patrick Mahomes currently has +2000 MVP odds, which translates to a 4.8% implied probability of winning the award. These odds place Patrick at rank #5 among all MVP candidates for the 2025-26 season.

Data Methodology

Our MVP odds aggregate data from major sportsbooks and calculate implied probabilities, market confidence, and trend analysis. All metrics are updated weekly with the latest market movements.

Learn More