Justin Herbert MVP Stock Rising: Chargers QB Up to +1200 After Week 1 Performance
The Los Angeles Chargers quarterback has quietly moved into the top tier of MVP candidates after his impressive start to the 2025 season.
Rising Star
Justin Herbert has quietly moved up to fourth in the MVP odds at +1200, despite the Chargers not playing until Monday night. His Week 1 performance against the Kansas City Chiefs was exactly what MVP voters look for.
The Week 1 Performance That Changed Everything
Herbert's Week 1 Stats
Passing Yards
318
Touchdowns
3
Completion %
68.2%
Justin Herbert's Week 1 performance against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs was nothing short of spectacular. Throwing for 318 yards and 3 touchdowns against one of the league's best defenses showed that Herbert is ready to take the next step in his career. His 68.2% completion percentage and 118.7 passer rating were both elite-level performances.
What made this performance even more impressive was the context. The Chargers were facing the defending champions on the road, and Herbert was able to lead his team to victory in a high-pressure situation. This is exactly the kind of performance that MVP voters remember when making their decisions.
Key Moment: Herbert's 25-yard touchdown pass to Keenan Allen in the fourth quarter was a perfect example of his ability to make clutch plays when his team needs them most.
Why Herbert's MVP Case is Strong
Strengths
- Elite Arm Talent: One of the best pure passers in the NFL
- Clutch Performance: Steps up in big moments
- Team Success: Chargers are 1-0 with a win over Chiefs
- Statistical Excellence: 318 yards, 3 TDs in Week 1
- Leadership: Commands respect in the locker room
Opportunities
- AFC West Open: Chiefs and Broncos both lost Week 2
- Monday Night Stage: Prime time opportunity to shine
- Weak Division: Chargers could dominate AFC West
- Playoff Push: Team success will boost MVP case
- Media Attention: Rising star getting more coverage
Herbert's MVP case is built on more than just statistics. His ability to lead the Chargers to victory against the defending champions shows that he can perform under pressure. The Chargers' success this season will be directly tied to Herbert's performance, which is exactly what MVP voters look for.
The Monday Night Opportunity
Week 2 Matchup: Chargers vs. Raiders
Monday night's game against the Las Vegas Raiders presents Herbert with a golden opportunity to solidify his MVP candidacy. With both Kansas City and Denver losing in Week 2, the Chargers have a chance to take control of the AFC West with a victory.
A strong performance on Monday night would not only help the Chargers' playoff positioning but also give Herbert the national spotlight he needs to build his MVP case. Prime time games are where legends are made, and Herbert has the talent to make this his breakout moment.
Historical Note: The last Chargers quarterback to win MVP was Dan Fouts in 1982. Herbert has the talent to become the second player in franchise history to win the award.
AFC West Landscape
Division Standings After Week 2
The AFC West is wide open after Week 2. The Chiefs and Broncos both suffered losses, while the Raiders are struggling at 0-2. This creates a perfect opportunity for the Chargers to establish themselves as the team to beat in the division.
If Herbert can lead the Chargers to victory on Monday night, they'll be in the driver's seat for the AFC West title. This kind of team success is crucial for MVP candidacy, as voters typically reward quarterbacks who lead their teams to division championships and playoff berths.
Comparing Herbert to Other MVP Candidates
| Player | Team | Odds | Record | Key Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | +300 | 2-0 | 148 yds, 0 TD (Week 2) |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | +300 | 1-1 | 4 TD (Week 2) |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | +700 | 2-0 | Strong start |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | +1200 | 1-0 | 318 yds, 3 TD (Week 1) |
Herbert's +1200 odds put him in the second tier of MVP candidates, behind only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love. His Week 1 performance was arguably more impressive than what we've seen from the other top candidates, and he has the opportunity to build on that momentum.
What Herbert Needs to Win MVP
Must-Have Factors
- Team Success: Chargers must win AFC West
- Statistical Excellence: 4,000+ yards, 30+ TDs
- Clutch Moments: Game-winning drives
- Health: Play all 17 games
- Prime Time: Perform in big games
X-Factors
- Division Dominance: Sweep AFC West rivals
- Playoff Push: Lead Chargers to deep run
- Media Narrative: Become the story
- Signature Wins: Beat elite teams
- Consistency: Avoid bad games
For Herbert to win MVP, he'll need to combine individual excellence with team success. The Chargers must win the AFC West and make a deep playoff run, while Herbert needs to put up elite statistics and perform in clutch moments.
Betting Analysis
Is +1200 Good Value?
At +1200, Herbert represents good value for MVP bettors. His Week 1 performance showed he has the talent to compete with the elite quarterbacks, and the Chargers' favorable schedule gives him opportunities to build his case.
If Herbert can lead the Chargers to the AFC West title and put up strong statistics, he could easily move into the top tier of MVP candidates. The +1200 odds offer solid value for a player with his upside.
Conclusion
Justin Herbert's MVP stock is rising for good reason. His Week 1 performance against the Chiefs was exactly what MVP voters look for, and his +1200 odds represent solid value for bettors.
With the AFC West wide open and the Chargers in position to take control, Herbert has the opportunity to build a strong MVP case. Monday night's game against the Raiders is his chance to show the nation that he belongs in the conversation with the elite quarterbacks.
The 2025 NFL season is still young, but Herbert has already shown that he has the talent and the opportunity to make a serious run at the MVP award. If he can maintain this level of play and lead the Chargers to success, he could become the first Chargers quarterback to win MVP since Dan Fouts in 1982.