One week into the NFL season, the MVP race has already seen a seismic shift. Josh Allen, fresh off orchestrating one of the most improbable comebacks in recent memory, has surged to the top of MVP odds at +310, representing a 24% implied probability of winning the award for the second consecutive year.
The Allen Ascension
Josh Allen's dramatic rise was powered by a performance that will be remembered for years to come. With just 3:50 remaining in Sunday Night Football's marquee matchup, the Baltimore Ravens held a commanding 98% win probability according to ESPN's win probability model. What followed was pure magic.
Allen led the Buffalo Bills on a 15-point rally in the final minutes, culminating in a 41-40 victory that left fans and analysts alike in awe. The performance showcased everything that makes Allen special: his cannon arm, his mobility in the pocket, and perhaps most importantly, his unshakeable confidence in high-pressure situations.
Key Stat: The Comeback
Allen's 15-point fourth-quarter comeback marked the largest deficit overcome in the final four minutes of a game since 2016, according to NFL Research. His 394 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing) against a stout Ravens defense sent a clear message to the rest of the league.
The New Top 5
Allen's ascension has reshuffled the entire MVP landscape. Here's how the top contenders stack up after Week 1:
Updated MVP Odds (Top 5)
Notable Movers and Shakers
Biggest Riser: Jordan Love
The most significant positive movement came from Green Bay's Jordan Love, who saw his odds improve from +2500 to +1200 after leading the Packers to a convincing 27-13 victory over the Detroit Lions. Love's performance was particularly impressive given the offseason questions about the Packers' receiving corps and offensive line.
Biggest Faller: Patrick Mahomes
The three-time Super Bowl champion saw his odds drop from +650 to +1000 after the Chiefs' 27-21 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. While Mahomes made some spectacular plays, the loss in a game where Kansas City was favored by 3 points has raised questions about the team's early-season form.
C.J. Stroud's Fall from Grace
The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year saw his odds balloon from +2500 to +4000 after the Texans' disappointing 14-9 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Stroud's struggles against a revamped Rams defense have some questioning whether he can build on his breakout 2023 campaign.
What This Means for the Race
Allen's early lead is significant, but history tells us that Week 1 results can be misleading. The last three MVP winners (Lamar Jackson in 2019, Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021, and Allen himself in 2023) all had strong starts, but the race often comes down to consistency over the full 17-game schedule.
The key factors to watch moving forward:
- Injury concerns: Can Allen stay healthy for the full season?
- Team success: MVP voters heavily favor quarterbacks on playoff teams
- Statistical dominance: Will Allen maintain his high-volume passing and rushing production?
- Competition: Can Jackson, Burrow, or others mount a serious challenge?
Looking Ahead to Week 2
The Bills face a tough test in Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins, who boast one of the league's most explosive offenses. A strong performance against a division rival could further solidify Allen's position as the favorite, while a loss could open the door for other contenders to close the gap.
Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will look to bounce back against the Cincinnati Bengals in what promises to be another high-stakes AFC North showdown. A victory there could help Jackson regain some of the momentum he lost in the closing minutes against Buffalo.
Betting Insight
While Allen's +310 odds represent good value for a player of his caliber, savvy bettors might consider waiting to see how he performs in Week 2 before making a significant wager. The MVP race is a marathon, not a sprint, and there's still plenty of football left to be played.
One thing is certain: after just one week of action, the NFL MVP race is already shaping up to be one of the most compelling storylines of the 2024 season. With Allen's dramatic rise and the competitive field behind him, fans and bettors alike will be watching closely as the season unfolds.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current NFL MVP odds after Week 1?
After Week 1, Josh Allen leads all MVP candidates at +310 odds, followed by Lamar Jackson at +550, Joe Burrow at +750, and Patrick Mahomes at +1000. You can view the complete NFL MVP odds table for all players.
Why did Josh Allen's MVP odds improve so dramatically?
Allen's odds improved from +600 to +310 after leading the Buffalo Bills to a dramatic 15-point comeback victory over the Baltimore Ravens. His performance included 394 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns, showcasing the clutch play that MVP voters value.
Which players saw the biggest odds changes in Week 1?
Jordan Love had the biggest positive movement, improving from +2500 to +1200 after the Packers' win over Detroit. Patrick Mahomes saw the biggest drop, falling from +650 to +1000 after the Chiefs' loss to the Chargers.
How often do Week 1 MVP favorites actually win the award?
Historically, Week 1 favorites have about a 30% chance of winning MVP. The award often goes to players who maintain consistency throughout the season rather than those who start hot. However, strong early performances can establish momentum that carries through the season.
Where can I find the latest NFL MVP odds updates?
Our NFL MVP odds page is updated daily with the latest betting lines from top sportsbooks. You can also follow our news section for weekly analysis and odds movement updates.